How to judge the future trend of aluminum prices?

According to the World Aluminum Network (, as of 2:30 p.m. on April 28, all 20 participants surveyed were bullish on tomorrow’s aluminum price. For reference only.

Product Price range Average price Ups and Downs Date
Foshan A00 20850-20750 20800 +140↑ 2024/4/29
Shanghai A00 20600-20500 20550 +140↑ 2024/4/29
Foshan electrolytic plate 75150-74950 75050 +400↑ 2024/4/29
Shanghai electrolytic copper 80450-80250 80350 +500↑ 2024/4/29
Guangxi Yunnan 0# zinc 21510-21310 21410 +60↑ 2024/4/29
Shanghai 0# zinc 22760-22560 22660 -100↓ 2024/4/29

So as an aluminum industry practitioner, how to judge the future trend of aluminum prices? It can be judged from the following aspects:

1. The impact of global economic conditions

The global economic growth trend is an important indicator to determine the trend of aluminum prices. Stable economic growth usually leads to increased demand for aluminum, thus pushing up aluminum prices. The policy orientation of key economies, such as monetary policy, trade policy and infrastructure investment policy, will have a profound impact on the aluminum market. For example, loose monetary policies may stimulate investment and consumption, which in turn increases demand for aluminum; while protectionist trade policies may lead to increased trade barriers to aluminum, affecting both aluminum supply and prices.

2. Changes in supply and demand fundamentals

The balance between aluminum supply and demand is a key factor in determining aluminum prices. An oversupply will cause aluminum prices to fall, while a supply shortage will push aluminum prices higher. The expected growth rates of global aluminum production and consumption are important indicators for judging future supply and demand conditions. If production growth exceeds consumption growth, then aluminum prices may come under pressure; conversely, if consumption growth is faster than production growth, aluminum prices are expected to rise.

3. Fluctuations in raw material prices

Aluminum production depends on bauxite and other raw materials, so the price fluctuations of bauxite will directly affect the cost of aluminum production, which in turn affects the price of aluminum. In addition, energy prices, especially the cost of electricity, is also an important part of aluminum production costs. Rising energy prices will increase the cost of aluminum production, which may lead to higher aluminum prices.

4. Driven by technology and innovation

New technology and innovation play an increasingly important role in the aluminum industry. Technological advances can improve aluminum production efficiency and reduce costs, thereby changing the market pattern and affecting the relationship between aluminum supply and demand. For example, the emergence of new smelting and recycling technologies may reduce the cost of aluminum production, increase the supply of aluminum and exert pressure on aluminum prices.

5. Geopolitical and trade risks

Geopolitical tensions and trade disputes are important factors affecting aluminum prices. Geopolitical risks may lead to disruptions in the supply of aluminum, such as mine closures or transportation disruptions, thus pushing up aluminum prices. Trade disputes, on the other hand, may lead to increased trade barriers to aluminum, affecting international trade flows of aluminum and, in turn, aluminum prices.

6. Environmental and Sustainability Considerations

The aluminum industry is also facing increasing environmental pressures as the global focus on carbon emissions and sustainable development continues to grow. Changes in policy may drive the aluminum industry to transition to more environmentally friendly and sustainable production methods, which may have an impact on aluminum production costs and supply, which in turn affects aluminum prices. At the same time, consumer demand for environmentally friendly products is also increasing, which may drive the aluminum industry to a more environmentally friendly direction, further affecting aluminum prices.

How to judge the future trend of aluminum prices

The future trend of aluminum prices will be affected by a variety of factors. Aluminum prices may fluctuate under the combined effect of multiple factors such as global economic conditions, supply and demand fundamentals, raw material prices, technological innovations, geopolitical and trade risks, as well as environmental and sustainable development. Therefore, we need to pay close attention to the changes in these factors in order to more accurately judge the future trend of aluminum prices.

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